How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.