Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”